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WorldEnds Jan 1, 202756d 17h

Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?

Market probabilityComputed live from the global pool
13%
Yes
87%
No
24h vol
$539k
Liquidity
$365k
Status
Open

How winnings work

Yes×7.20

You win if the answer is YES by the deadline

With € 10.00 on Yes → payout € 72.00 (profit € 62.00)

No×1.03

You win if the answer is NO by the deadline

With € 10.00 on No → payout € 10.29 (profit € 0.29)

Resolved by Polymarket via decentralized oracle (UMA) at deadline
How this market settles▾

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Iran or the United States as of November 4, 2025 12:00 PM ET, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.

How it works

Pick Yes or No, choose your stake. If the event resolves as you predicted, you win at the shown odds. Payout is automatic when the event ends. The more you know, the more you win.

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Stake
Tap to edit
Potential payoutOdds 7.20
€ 0.00

Guaranteed payout · Instant settlement · Single balance